MBS RECAP: Massive Sell-Off in Stocks but no Rally in Bonds

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's not often you'll see the S&P down over 30 points with less than 1bp of day-over-day movement in 10yr yields, but that's where we're heading out today. Things might have been worse for Treasuries, however, had it not been for the stock selling, which prompted some asset reallocation ahead of month-end (sell stocks/buy bonds). In reality, both sides of the market are disheartened by yesterday's super strong GDP reading because it drives the point home that Fed accommodation is likely on its last legs. Since the prodigious staying power in stocks is at least mostly …read more

Mortgage Rates Barely Higher, More Volatility Ahead

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates started the day in fairly rough shape with most lenders offering noticeably higher rates vs yesterday. As stock markets slid into the afternoon, the bond markets that underlie mortgage rates improved. Most lenders put out better rate sheets at some point in the day. In most cases this brought them fairly close to yesterday’s latest levels though rates were just slightly higher on average. The most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for flawless scenarios remains 4.25% . Tomorrow brings what is traditionally the most important economic report of any given month. The Employment …read more

Longest Recorded Refi Boom Ends; New Demographic Emerges

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac has officially declared that the refinancing boom is over. The company’s Refinance Report for the second quarter of 2014 said that the longest refinance boom in the 24 years since it started keeping records officially ended in the second quarter. That occasion was marked when the share of mortgages originated for refinancing fell below 50 percent for the first time since the third quarter of 2008. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said, “The housing market realized a significant shift in the second quarter of this year as refinance activity fell …read more

MBS Day Ahead: What Yesterday’s GDP Shocker Means for Rates

Posted To: MBS Commentary

With GDP living up to it's surprising potential, things have quickly gotten more serious for domestic bond markets. Before yesterday, econo-bears could hold out some hope that Q2 GDP might have reiterated the gloominess of Q1 GDP in some way. They could hold out hope that Q1 weakness was about more than just the list of “excuses” that had come under increasing amounts of fire as Q1 GDP kept getting revised lower. To whatever extent that Q1 gloominess and Q2 hope played in to recent strength in rates, yesterday stands a chance to become a fairly …read more

MBS RECAP: FOMC Announcement Wholly Overshadowed by GDP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Tonight's theme: “not many.” It's not many times that GDP will crack 4% after being down more than 2% in the previous quarter, but it did today. But that's because it's not many times that the US economy will grow at 3.5% in one quarter and then drop to -2.9% in the following quarter, all the while with job creation averaging over 200k, but it did that from Q4 2013 to Q1 2014 (i.e. something was wrong with that picture, and as we've discussed, it set today's result up to be much bigger). Finally, it's not …read more

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month After GDP

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

For weeks, we’ve discussed the prospects for increased volatility centered on today’s economic calendar. The chances of a bigger move were much higher going into today’s GDP data, and a bigger move is exactly what we got. Unfortunately, it was in an unfriendly direction. GDP was significantly stronger than expected, which caused an equally significant amount of weakness in the secondary mortgage market. With the data released at 8:30am and most lenders not putting out their first rate sheets until after 9am, mortgage rates shot rapidly higher right out of the gate. Bond markets (which …read more

California Realtors get Heads-Up on Short Sale Complications

Posted To: MND NewsWire

A short sale program for properties serviced by Nationstar, which bills itself as one of the nation’s largest independent loan servicers, is the subject of a new member advisory from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). C.A.R. is acquiescing to the program about which it has been in talks with the servicer for the last year but which it has been told by the California Bureau of Real Estate (BRE) does not violate any laws. Nationstar requires most of its mortgaged properties to be listed on auction.com before a short sale is finalized. The company says …read more

The Importance of FinCEN & SARS; Fannie/Freddie Updates; Upcoming Events

Posted To: Pipeline Press

There are plenty of ways to divvy up people (those who like soggy cereal, those that don’t, those that can form their tongue into an “o”, and those that can’t, for example.) Another way is your net worth & attitude toward work. A Merrill Lynch report finds millionaires are twice as likely to keep working in retirement than the rest of the population and 33% of those with $1mm to $5mm in investible assets are currently working in retirement (vs. 15% of retirees with less than $250k). The top reason reportedly was a desire to stay …read more

Slow, Mixed Week for Mortgage Applications

Posted To: MND NewsWire

It was a mixed and largely directionless week for mortgage applications as the volume of applications for home purchases inched up fractionally while applications for refinancing fell . The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume was down slightly during the week ended July 25 on both a seasonally adjusted and a non-adjusted basis with the former decreasing 2.2 percent and the latter 2.0 percent compared to the previous week. The Refinance Index fell 4 percent, wiping out an identical gain during the week ended July 18. The share …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Big Potential for Bond Markets, for Better or Worse

Posted To: MBS Commentary

On the afternoon of the Thursday before last, bond markets had just gone on their run to the best levels in over a month on the geopolitical flare-up (that was the day that begin with the Malaysian Airliner and ended with Israel announcing a ground assault in Gaza). As we discussed at the time, the geopolitical risk situation would have to continue to be as surprisingly negative as it had been on Thursday in order for bond markets to continue past the year's best levels. While overseas events remained troubling–continuing to offer large-scale tragedy–they didn't offer …read more