Mortgage Rates End Bad Month on Good Note

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates managed to scrape together modest gains for today’s month-end session. In terms of the financial markets that dictate mortgage rates, the last day of the month can be a volatile day that shuns the normal cause and effect relationships between data and market movement. Today’s example thankfully bucked that trend (perhaps because the rest of the month had already given us plenty of volatility). Trading levels were stable to stronger all day, allowing many lenders to drop rates in the middle of the day. 3.75% remains intact as the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr …read more

MBS RECAP: Slow, Steady Gains for Bond Markets

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Very little has changed between now and the mid-day update (read that HERE if you like). To recap, bonds started the day roughly in line with yesterday's latest levels and made gradual improvements throughout the day. That was more true for MBS than for Treasuries though. 10yr yields were locked in more of a sideways range in the morning hours and never really broke it until after the 3pm close. MBS saw more consistent improvement, albeit at a gradual pace. Data was disregarded, with the possible exception of some volatility after Chicago PMI. There were no …read more

Lessons for Europe from the US Housing Recovery

Posted To: Community Commentary

In our highly interconnected financial world, what happens in Europe, Greece, and Germany greatly affects our own bond and MBS markets . There has been much discussion back and forth of who is to blame for the Greek crisis , massive debts in other Southern Euro countries and what to do going forward to solve this problem. First of all, I do lay some blame on previous Greek governments for previous massive borrowing, government corruption and also the Greek “elites” who find ways to not pay their taxes. But, I put more blame the large Northern …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Today Probably Won’t Decide the Permanent Fate of Rates in the US

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We're all a bit shaken up–us market watching types. Almost all of 2014 through January of 2015 was great, and now February has stuck out like a sore thumb. This week's refreshing rally on Tuesday was the first real glimmer of hope. As of Thursday night, that glimmer was far from extinguished , with 10yr yields holding under the important 2.04 technical level after having been as high as 2.16 in the previous week. All of that is good, but any strong bouts of selling are unsettling right now. We want our glimmer to grow and …read more

MBS RECAP: Strong Start, Much Weaker Finish as Corporate Deals Hit Rates

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For being a day that followed 2 sessions of gains in a month where 2 sessions of gains is nearly unheard of, today got off to a great start . There were new all-time lows in German Bund yields and US 10s were all the way down to 1.931 at their best levels. By the end of the day though, they'd be exactly 10bps higher. The weakness started right off the bat after a round of mixed economic data at 8:30am. Perhaps it was the stronger Durable Goods headline or the big increases in Real Wages …read more

Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher Ahead of GDP

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, undoing the modest gains seen yesterday, but leaving the more significant drop from Tuesday intact. 3.75% remains the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios, though a few lenders will have drifted up to 3.875% with today’s weakness. Today’s losses were a factor of both data and events. This morning’s economic data was mixed, but higher Durable Goods and Real Wages overshadowed higher Jobless Claims. The data started the ball rolling in a negative direction for the markets that affect mortgage rates this morning, and from …read more

By Any Measure FHA’s Role is Shrinking

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) saw its share of the mortgage market soar to 72 percent of all mortgages issued in 2008 as other lenders pulled back and FHA moved into one of the two roles it was designed to fill, as a counterforce providing access to credit when the private sector pulls back , typically because of economic stress. Since then that share has steadily declined and FHA is back down to around 15-17 percent. In a recent entry in the National Association of Realtor’s® Economist Commentaries , Ken Fears, NAR’s Director of Regional Economics …read more

MBS Day Ahead: After Standing 8-Count, Will Bonds Come Out Swinging?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Domestic bond markets had been getting pummeled for exactly 3 weeks before getting a break on Tuesday. Then yesterday, they confirmed they're not going to go down without a fight. The question now becomes ' how hard will they fight back? ' In order to answer this, we first have to understand what they're fighting against. As I laid out yesterday, while Yellen and NFP have mattered greatly in the short term, the biggest factor in the bigger picture has been Europe. Specifically, US bond markets would be justifiably concerned about the possibility that Europe is …read more

MBS RECAP: Extraordinarily Flat Day, Which is Awesome Right Now

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There are few situations that warrant more happiness or relief over what turned out to be a merely flat trading session in bond markets. Reason being: it helps legitimize and confirm yesterday's more determined movement. Looking at this in terms of 10yr yields, we'd been bouncing back from the 2.15 technical level rather timidly until yesterday and had been completely unable to break through the 2.04 technical barrier. Yesterday not only did the trick, but 10yr yields gave 2.04 a nice courtesy tap on the way down, as if to confirm the technical significance. There was …read more

Mortgage Rates Finally Feeling the Love

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates had a bad Valentines Day. It’s not that anything happened on that Saturday. Indeed, lenders weren’t even open. It’s just that things changed significantly by the time US markets reopened on Tuesday, with rates moving higher at the fastest pace in over a year. After a purely corrective bounce the following day, rates spent the next three days in limbo. That brought us to yesterday’s big move lower following Yellen’s testimony and an anticlimactic Eurozone response to the Greek bailout (initial approval), but it was an outlier against an otherwise crummy trend toward …read more