Mortgage Rates Manage Small Victory After Yesterday’s Huge Defeat

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates held their ground today, and in some cases, managed to improve after yesterday’s rout. This result was far from guaranteed during the morning hours though. Stronger economic data caused bond markets to weaken significantly, putting upward pressure on the day’s first rate sheets. Later in the day, traders set about making their end-of-month trades, which often must be made without regard for economic data or investment strategy. In today’s case, those month-end trades were a big benefit for the bond markets that underlie mortgage rates. Most lenders were able to reissue improved rate …read more

MBS RECAP: Widespread Positive Reprices as Bonds Battle Back to Green

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After defying overnight pressure from European bond markets to open in stronger territory, domestic bond markets were soon facing their own pressure . Economic data came in stronger than expected. Of particular note was the Employment Cost Index, which suggested a solid increase in wages. The significantly stronger Jobless Claims data–while of questionable importance–certainly didn't make any case against weakness in the morning. And weakness is what we got. 10yr yields climbed as high as 2.11 by 10:50am–the same time that German Bund yields were hitting their highest levels since early March . This is now …read more

Severe Economic Downturn could Trigger GSE Bailout

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports that the two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might together require government assistance of as much as $157.3 billion in the event of an extremely severe economic downturn. The figure comes as a result of a stress test mandated by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act for certain financial institutions with more than $10 billion in assets, criteria which includes the two companies which are in Federal conservatorship. The test, an annual requirement, is designed to determine whether an institution can absorb losses …read more

CFPB, NY, and Maryland Target Title Companies – More Regulators on the Way?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I travel around a fair amount, spending time with lenders, Realtors, and TSA personnel. A major concern among the first two groups is whether or not real estate agents – especially those that only close a couple deals a year – are going to be ready for the TRID changes on August 1. NAR is indeed trying to educate through videos . And this video is a reminder about what is happening with the good ol’ HUD-1. Down a couple paragraphs is more information about TRID-mania. Are 30 day contracts a thing of the past? Speaking …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Weak Enough to Bounce or Weak Enough to Suggest More Selling?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There are two ways to approach the weakness in bond markets over the past two days, and before we discuss them, I should warn you that I don't know which way is the right one. The first approach would be that we're in the middle of a correction within the longer-term downtrend accompanied, or even driven by a similar correction in an even more epic downtrend in Germany. On April 21st, I suggested short term motivation for bond markets might come from a technical bounce that looked to be taking shape in German Bunds. A week …read more

MBS RECAP: Role Reversal: GDP And Morning Trading Trump FOMC

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Heading into today, the afternoon's FOMC Announcement had the first right of refusal when it came to moving markets. As it happened, it was the morning hours that ended up setting the tone for the entire day, and by a wide margin at that. In fact, the FOMC Announcement ended up being swallowed up by the mere remnants of tradeflow momentum from European hours. What happened here? First of all, be sure to see that MBS are only down 2 ticks on the day. Treasuries are worse off and have given an increasingly negative technical signal, …read more

Mortgage Rates at 6 Week Highs, But Why?

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved firmly up to the highest levels since March 17th. Incidentally, there was a Fed Announcement on March 18th and another Fed Announcement today. While rates generally moved lower with good momentum after the last Fed Announcement, we shouldn’t be quick to assume that today’s Announcement is the reason they moved back higher. In fact, today’s weakness was intact before US markets even opened. European trading has frequently contributed to noticeable overnight movement in US Treasuries which, in turn, always contribute to movement in the mortgage-backed-securities that dictate rates. Europe had a rough …read more

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Fear The Nudge

Posted To: MBS Commentary

GDP was super weak (0.2 vs 1.0 forecast) and all of the important internal components were weaker as well. So naturally, bond markets rallied on the news. One major problem with that rally though: it occurred inside a much larger, much more forceful sell-off. In hindsight, it's barely detectable. “Something” pushed bond markets forcefully into weaker territory this morning and it wasn't about to be stopped by a silly little thing like really weak GDP data. The question is what is that “something?” Whatever it is, we know it speaks German. European debt exploded this morning. …read more

Homeownership Stats; CFPB Penalties; Rant on Millennials, Why They Aren’t Buying

Posted To: Pipeline Press

First off, let me apologize for having the incorrect site in yesterday’s commentary regarding the funny history of the term “escrow” – this is the site for the short clip . For many April will be on par with the great March numbers, and the pipelines are still decent – boding well for May! Tens of thousands of LOs and lenders helping borrowers achieve the American Dream! Very cool. Speaking of “exciting” times, what was Maryland up to leading up to the Civil War? (I know – a weak crossover.) How about, “trying not to take …read more

Pending Home Sales Highest Since June 2013

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Momentum appears to be building toward a healthy spring market according to data released today on March pending home sales. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), reached 108.6 in March, a 1.1 percent increase over the previous month. At the same time the February Index number was revised upward from 106.9 to 107.4. March is the third consecutive month that pending sales have increased month over month and the Index is now at its highest level since June 2013 when it was 109.4. The PHSI was up 11.1 percent …read more