MBS RECAP: How’d We Get Here and Where Are We Going?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Pre-announced bond buying programs are really quite something. They have all ended up being well-telegraphed enough to allow investors to do their own bond buying well before the program starts, driving rates lower preemptively. This was the case throughout 2014 and even more so at the beginning of 2015 (when it became abundantly clear that Europe was set for QE. Once Europe finally started buying bonds, there was no more front-running left to be done, and rates paradoxically moved swiftly higher. To paraphrase all that: The European Central Bank (ECB) said it was going to buy …read more

Mortgage Rates Nearly Unchanged in 2015

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates had an interesting year to say the least. After almost universal consensus on a move toward higher rates the first few months of the year instead saw a precipitous drop to long-term lows. Chalk that up to the inception of Europe’s bond buying program (and most of 2014’s improvements for that matter). Later in the year, rates saw bigger moves higher and lower as expectations ebbed and flowed regarding the Fed rate hike. Rates like those pertaining to mortgages and longer-term US Treasuries can move more nimbly based on those expectations. The higher …read more

Bank M&A; Pending Home Sales Primer; Lender Form Changes – Who Can Keep Track?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Given my Resolutions from a year ago, and looking back at 2015, I’ve got today to get skinny, save money, learn French, and undrink 987 bottles of wine. On a more serious note, plenty of people in the mortgage business are doing things towards lessening poverty and helping children. The U.S. Census Bureau has released findings from its Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program which determines the number of people in poverty, the number of children younger than 5 in poverty, the number of children between 5 and 17 in families in poverty, and median …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Early Close and Relative Lack of Data. Excited Yet?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today is a very exciting day for bond market participants. Most of them are on vacation, or at the very least, in a vacation-like state of mind. The latter refers to the magical phenomenon whereby millions of employees are forced to work for whatever reason, but instead end up showing up in body only. Simply put, people may be working, but for most of them, it's only to go through the motions until they can leave. Any interesting developments today in terms of bond market movement are purely an illusion . Such movements would be whatever …read more

October sees Seasonal Uptick in Distressed Home Sales Share

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Sales of distressed properties made up 10.2 percent of total home sales in October CoreLogic said on Tuesday. The October number represented a slight seasonal increase of 0.2 percent from September but was two full percentage points lower than in October 2014. Sales of lender owned real estate ( REO ) constituted 6.9 percent of sales compared to an 8.5 percent share a year earlier and was the lowest for any October since 2007. Short sales made up 3.3 percent of sales for the month. Short sales have maintained a share within the 3 to 4 …read more

MBS RECAP: Uneventful Day as Bonds Level Off for Year-End

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The overnight session was much less interesting for Treasuries today (compared to yesterday). In the sense that European bonds weren't pushing yields higher, it was a much better set-up for the day. But in the sense that Treasuries weren't responding to a moderate rally in European bonds or declines in oil prices, it was also a bit ominous . Bonds maintained their sideways tack despite supportive performances in other markets (falling stocks and oil prices). This was ostensibly due to anxiety over the afternoon's 7yr Treasury auction . The results and subsequent trading corroborate the 'anxiety' …read more

Mortgage Rates Sideways at Long-Term Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates managed to hold steady today after moving up to the highest levels in more than 5 months yesterday. Rates had moved close to current levels even before the Fed rate hike earlier this month. Since then, they’ve been sideways overall, with a good balance between better and worse days. Yesterday’s move higher finally upset that balance. For the first time since late November, rates are starting to look more predisposed to moving higher . There is a major caveat though. Mortgage rates are driven by the prices of mortgage-backed-securities (MBS), which are part …read more

Improving Mortgage Performance equals Best MiMi in 15 Months

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) produced by Freddie Mac’s Office of the Chief Economist shows that the U.S. housing market is within the outer range of being considered stable. The national value of the index improved by 0.59 percent from September to October and has gained 1.54 percent over the last three months. The MiMi in October stood at 81.9. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value has improved +6.31 percent. Since its all-time low in October 2010, it has rebounded by 38 percent, but remains significantly off its high of 121.7. Two additional states-New …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Bigger Picture Risks With a Major Caveat

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bond markets–especially Treasuries–had one of their worst days of the month yesterday. Or maybe they didn't… It's hard to say for sure when volumes were about half that of an average day and roughly 1/3rd of the average NFP day. Not only that, but we also know there are far fewer active market participants this time of year. Finally, we also know that trading is less motivated by organic, long-term considerations and more by end-of-year housekeeping needs. In other words, there's always some chance that days like yesterday were/are purely incidental and January's trading will be …read more

MBS RECAP: Mortgages Outperform but Dragged Down by Treasuries

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Treasuries were significantly weaker today as oil, Europe, and equities all bounced higher. The move was led by a reversal in European bond markets in the morning and by a weak 5yr Treasury auction in the afternoon. In fact, until the auction, bonds simply looked to be giving back yesterday's Europe-inspired gains. The fallout from the auction was good for another 3-4 bps of weakness in 10yr yields. MBS held their ground admirably, but more so in the morning hours. Before the auction, Fannie 3.5s and 3.0s had managed to hold inside yesterday's range (Treasuries were …read more