MBS RECAP: Best Day in 8 Months, Best Month in a Year

Posted To: MBS Commentary

For the end of any given day, bond markets closed at their best levels since April. If we look at only month-end closing levels, today was the best close in a year . The amount of ground covered from start to finish was also the biggest in a year, fully engulfing the previous 3 months of weakness. We'll talk more about what that might indicate from a technical perspective next week, but suffice it to say, we're going out (of January) on a higher note (or low note, if we're talking about rates). What's up with …read more

Mortgage Rates In Line With 8-Month Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were at 3 month lows yesterday and today have moved in line with 8-month lows. For most lenders, there was a day or 2 in October that was just slightly better than today, but the differences are negligible. Before that, you’d have to go back to April to find anything remotely as good. At these levels, some of the most aggressive lenders are quoting 3.625% conventional 30yr fixed rates on top tier scenarios. Most remain at 3.75% with a few stragglers at 3.875%. Yesterday, I mentioned the risks associated with the sort of …read more

Buy-to-Rent: Business Model or Quick Profit Plan?

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Are the big companies who have purchased large number of single-family homes over the last few years looking for a quick profit or are they in the buy-to-rent business for the long haul? Freddie Mac, in its latest issue of Insight & Outlook says there are going indications it might be the latter. Landlording single family detached houses is generally assumed to be a sideline. A 1996 survey found that three quarters of such dwelling units were held by individuals or partnerships which owned fewer than 10 units and others have estimated that about half are …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Divergence From Oil/Equities Only Temporary?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

You can't step 2 feet out your front door in 2016 without being pelted by news regarding the close correlation between stocks, bonds and oil. Heck, I've been doing much of the pelting, largely because I'd normally be the first to point out just how unreliable the so-called ' stock lever' can be as far as bond market indicators go. But I'd also be the first to tell you that bonds never want to miss an opportunity to bask in the warm red glow of a particularly nasty stock sell-off. They've certainly had their chance this …read more

MBS RECAP: Widespread Positive Reprices as Bonds Levitate

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Stocks gained a bit of ground today. Oil prices were significantly higher–building on a strong 3-day bounce. But on both accounts, bond markets didn't get the memo. Bond prices continued to levitate despite a relative lack apparent justification. There was some justification in the the morning with ultra weak Durable Goods data and in the afternoon with the incredibly strong 7yr Auction. But even then, bonds have been doing a little bit better than it seems like they should be. This is likely a factor of the month-end bond trading environment, considering tomorrow is the last …read more

Mortgage Rates Hit 3 Month lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved down modestly today, but it was enough to bring them to the lowest levels seen in exactly 3 months. There were only a few days in October where rates were any lower and before that, you’d have to go all the way back to April to do any better. The improvements were generally still seen in the form of upfront costs as opposed to the actual contract rates themselves. Most lenders remain in a range of 3.75-3.875% on conventional 30yr fixed quotes for top tier scenarios. Despite reaching these long term lows, …read more

Distressed Sales have usual November Blip

Posted To: MND NewsWire

There was a slight uptick in the market share of distressed home sales in November. Sales of lender-owned houses (REO) and short sales accounted for 11.9 percent of total home sales nationally, a 1.4 percent point gain over those sales in October. The share was, however, down 1.9 points from November 2014. In releasing the November numbers CoreLogic said the month-over-month increase was a factor of seasonality and was in line with blips in previous Novembers. Distressed home sales were still the lowest for any November since 2007. REO had an 8.7 percent portion of all …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Continue to Struggle With Technicals

Posted To: MBS Commentary

If we take the awesome part of 2016 for granted and simply focus on our most timely challenges, we find bond markets struggling to make any further improvement. Indeed, 10yr yields made it down to 1.98 in fairly short order this year, but haven't been able to close below there , despite several attempts. This has resulted in the technical momentum indicators looking increasingly gloomy. These sorts of roadblocks don't necessarily need to be a bad thing though. Indeed one of the classic technical chart formations is the “pennant,” characterized by converging lines connecting the highs …read more

MBS RECAP: Bonds End Green After Downbeat Fed

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's Fed announcement was decidedly more downbeat than the previous iteration and markets reacted accordingly. There was never any real chance that the Fed would actually hike rates this time around, so we can be sure the reaction was purely a function of the Fed's chosen verbiage. Here are a few examples of the downgraded verbiage. These are subtle in and of themselves, but as far as Fed announcements go, this is about as much of a shift as we see without an accompanying policy decision: The Fed changed from viewing economic activity as “expanding at …read more

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Fed Announcement

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates pulled off a come-from-behind victory following today’s Fed Announcement. This time around, the Fed wasn’t at all likely to make any changes to the Fed Funds rate, but investors were still curious to see how the Fed worded the statement in light of January’s market turmoil. As far as Fed statements go, today’s ended up being noticeably more gloomy and markets reacted accordingly. Stocks and rates both fell in the afternoon. Before than rates began the day in slightly higher territory. That means most lenders released positively revised rate sheets after the Fed …read more