MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Taking a Classic Lead-Off

Posted To: MBS Commentary

No NFP anxiety, markets are all about preparing for April Traders think stocks will suffer and bonds will pick up the slack Dovish Yellen helped grease the skids earlier in the week We may have already traded in a lot of the anticipated positivity 10s drop 5.8bps to 1.77. Fannie 3.0s up 9 ticks to 102-21 There are at least 2 sorts of “lead-offs” that bond markets typically take: those at the end of a trading cycle (like month/quarter-end) and those before a big piece of economic data. Today saw at least one of those and …read more

Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Month

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates dropped again today, continuing a recent trend of improvement and bringing us to the best levels seen since March 1st. Market volatility is still making for a wide variety of pricing strategies between lenders with some of them easily back down to 3.625% on conventional 30yr fixed quotes while others aren’t quite there yet. Either way, the average lender is more likely to be quoting 3.625% on top tier scenarios than on any other day this month. The timing is dramatic , with today being the last day of the month/quarter and also …read more

Affordability Keeping a Lid on Purchase Activity

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac’s Multi-Indicator Market Index (MiMi) is now showing that most of the nation’s housing markets are, at a minimum, on the outer range of their normal housing activity. The national MiMi in January was 82.7, a .18 percent improvement from December and a three-month positive change of 1.46 percent. Since January 2015 the MiMi value has risen by 7.57 percent . Freddie Mac constructs its index to monitor and measure the stability of the nation’s housing market and markets in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and the top 100 metro markets. It is …read more

Companies Expanding; Bank Failure Stats Improving; Banks Easing Credit?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“If you work hard and go the extra mile to provide for your family…I will take that extra income and give it to those who refuse to do the same!” Was that heard on the campaign trail? I don’t know. But it is making the rounds. And don’t forget that tomorrow is April’s Fools Day – be careful what you believe in daily commentaries. The Financial Times reported that client-reporting failure has cost big banks $43B since 2009 . “The world’s largest investment banks have been fined $43 billion during the past seven years for customer-reporting …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Are Bonds Only Holding Ground Because It’s Month-End?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Month-end means bond traders are adjusting portfolios to match a published index The index was a bit less friendly than expected yesterday, and bonds bounced That bounce gives us a good target to watch for rallies Things have been going fairly well for bond markets over the past few days, with Tuesday's post-Yellen rally being the biggest potential turning point. Before that, Treasuries and MBS had been in a mostly-sideways pattern, potentially running into resistance at middle-of-the-road trading levels. But after the Yellen-inspired rally, we've had a hard time making new progress. This begs the question: …read more

MBS RECAP: Markets Continue Coming To Terms With Yellen

Posted To: MBS Commentary

markets continue repricing rate hike expectations shorter duration debt wins (2yr Treasuries beating 10yr) MBS are shorter duration than 10yr, so MBS outperformed, ending green while 10's lost ground Data was a non-event In most every way, today was just another day for financial markets to digest yesterday's Yellen comments and adjust trading positions accordingly. Yellen said a lot in her speech, but the most succinct translation is: “we're not hiking in April and possibly not even in June. We're still pretty concerned about the global economy even though it's not part of our mandate. We …read more

Mortgage Rates Steady at Recent Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates held steady in most cases today, though several lenders continued to improve. The average lender is at least down to 3.75% in terms of conventional 30yr fixed rates on top tier scenarios, but many are already back to 3.625%. Yesterday’s strong gains came courtesy of a speech from Fed Chair Yellen, and today provided an opportunity for financial markets to confirm their intentions. If the Yellen-inspired drop in rates was going to be a temporary knee-jerk movement, we would have seen evidence of that today. As it stands, this sideways movement is the …read more

Small Balance Commercial Webinar; Cost of TRID and Impact on Appraisers

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Lenders across the nation are switching to potlucks at the end of the month instead of catered lunches. Why? A new survey of mortgage lenders by the MBA finds loan production expenses have climbed 9.4% to $7,747 per loan vs. $7,080 before the TRID requirement went into effect. I just made up the tidbit about the lunches, and everyone knows that these costs are passed on to borrowers, but still… It certainly helps explain why there is less refinancing in a similar rate environment. But STRATMOR has a different take on the increase in cost – …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Technical Ceilings Await The Attack

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yellen rally set off positive technicals “Technicals” refers to mathematical interpretation of market movement based only on the previous market movement (i.e. ignoring data and external events) Today's data is a non-event, thus leaving focus on technicals Watch 1.85 and 1.88 in 10yr yields for defensive ceilings. They might be attacked, but if they hold, that's good. Yesterday's Yellen-induced bond market rally did some nice things for most of the mainstream technical analysis (drawing conclusions and making predictions about market movement based solely on the market movement itself, as opposed to external events). There are too …read more

Mortgage Apps Sideways as Purchases Offset Refi Drop

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage activity during the week ended March 25 more or less marked time. Rates were mixed and purchase loans, which increased slightly , offset refinance applications for a slight decrease in mortgage volume. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume dipped 1 percent on both a seasonally adjusted and an adjusted basis compared to the week ended March 18. MBA’s Refinance Index provided the downside for the week, decreasing 3 percent from the week before. The Purchase Index increased 2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3 percent …read more