MBS RECAP: Quarter Ends With Volatility, But No Sell-Off

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds bounced back as month-end buying hit its stride Second wind came from Bank of England comments on likely stimulus Yields bounced higher after Europe closed, but held same general range from past 4 days If we take a look at everything that's happened since bonds began their big sell-off yesterday afternoon, it all ended up being a wash by the end of today's trading. A chart illustrates the point: In arriving at this flatness, there have been a few notable players. Treasuries began moving lower in yield of their own volition in the morning hours …read more

Mortgage Rates Stay Strong to End Quarter

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates trickled slightly lower today, technically taking them to another in a string of 3-year lows over the past 2 weeks. The most recent, most noticeable catalyst for the move toward lower rates is the passing of the referendum for the UK to leave the EU (aka “Brexit”). Given the bounce back in stocks since last Friday, it’s tempting to conclude that financial markets have “gotten over” their initial apprehension regarding Brexit. But the bond markets that underly mortgage rate movement haven’t bounced back in the same way. In fact, they haven’t really bounced …read more

Banking Stress Tests, Mergers; IRS Extends Deadline; Austin & SF Job Market Stats

Posted To: Pipeline Press

The last day of June, and 2016 half over? How did that happen? (Regarding time flying Linda B. writes, “Thank the Good Lord, I am Benjamin Button.”) June for me included time spent in Dallas, Albany NY, Northern California, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Kansas, and now Hawai’i for the MBAH conference. I continue to see hard-working, conscientious, competent people in all ranks of residential lending doing their jobs well. And yet we, as an industry continue to pay the price, both in the press and financially, for problems from years ago. And if you don’t think …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting Bigger Picture After Yesterday’s Losses

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds remain generally strong despite yesterday's losses There continues to be a good line in the sand that can warn against a bigger shift Further losses would take rates back toward previously broken range of 2016 Yesterday's Day Ahead pointed out the stock/bond divergence and asked “which one is lying?” As I sifted through headlines this morning, I saw one to the effect of “stocks and bonds saying the same thing, but trust bonds .” I'm glad that's all cleared up! Seriously though, given the global sovereign debt situation (Treasuries are US sovereign debt) with over …read more

MBS RECAP: Bonds Tank in PM Trading After Oracle Goes Big

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds continued holding ultra-narrow post-Brexit range until 3pm At that point, Treasuries spiked aggressively and MBS eventually followed Initial culprit was likely the Oracle corporate bond issuance Markets knew this was coming, but they didn't know when or how big It was sooner and bigger than expected, thus putting pressure on other parts of the bond market and adding to snowball selling momentum If you like to click links and learn more about the bigger picture bond market motivations, and if you haven't already read it, check out our primer on corporate bond issuance HERE . …read more

Rates Continue Holding 3-Year Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates roughly unchanged today, on average, with some lenders showing slight improvements while others moved just a bit higher. Even on individual lenders’ rate sheets there were some cases of the lowest rate offerings improving while higher rate offerings got worse. This refers to the “cost” associated with any given rate. It’s a behind-the-scenes number that dictates the value of upfront closing costs or lender credit. In most cases, the actual interest rate doesn’t move on any given day, and instead, it’s the upfront costs that allow for fine-tuning adjustments. In terms of actual …read more

Boomers’ Big Impact on Housing Market

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Baby Boomers, even as they age, continue to have an outsized impact on the housing market. Freddie Mac recently conducted a large survey of those over age 55 to find out their housing perceptions and preferences. The first data released from the survey dealt with responses from homeowners while a second analysis concentrated on those renting their homes. The majority of homeowners over age 55 are happy about where they live. Fifty-nine percent are “very satisfied” with their communities, 64 percent with their current home, and 54 percent with their quality of life. The majority of …read more

New Products; Free Training; FHLBs Enlist in MPF for Ginnies

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Huh? People burned while walking across fire at a Tony Robbins event in Texas? Imagine that! Speaking of incendiary activities, an amendment passed the Senate Appropriations Committee would bar federal banking regulators from preventing or penalizing banks for providing financial services to state approved marijuana businesses . This will now head to the Senate floor for a vote. I am sure that the alcohol lobbies are dead-set against it, but using income from such businesses for loans bound for F&F or the big banks could make things less complicated for underwriters. New products BOK Financial Correspondent …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Stock/Bond Divergence: Is Someone Lying?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Woops! I gave away the formula for 99% of any market analysis over the past week, but I have some space to fill, so on we go! Yes, the post-Brexit trade really is that big of a deal, and yes, there really is a metric tonne of uncertainty surrounding the topic. The problem we're dealing with is “the long-term maybes vs the short term realities.” As it turns out, the short term realities aren't that scary. When …read more

Refi Demand Won’t Reflect Rate Drop Until Next Week

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application activity was down across the board during the week ended June 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, dropped by 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the week ended June 17. On an unadjusted basis the loss was 3 percent. The decline was shared about equally by refinancing and purchase applications. The Refinance Index lost 2 percent from its level a week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down 3 percent and the unadjusted Purchase Index fell 4 percent. Unadjusted purchase …read more