MBS Day Ahead: ECB Rain Check Raises Questions For Short-Term Rate Trend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Rates and yields have been trending steadily higher since hitting all-time lows in early July. Those lows were most immediately attributable to the Brexit reaction, and thus the initial bounce back toward higher rates wasn't too severe and the resulting uptrend was barely detectable. 10yr yields essentially leveled-off in a sideways range surrounding 1.55% and that seemed to be that. Enter early September. Bond volatility increased significantly after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi kept quiet on the topic of extending the ECB's asset purchases set to expire in March 2017. Granted, that was 6 …read more

MBS RECAP: Inconsequential Volatility Inside a Range

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and rallied in the morning hours along with European bond markets. Most of the volume was in before 9:45 and the remainder of the day's trading took place inside the range set during the preceding 90 minutes (effective, the first 90 minutes of domestic trading). That's the market's way of telling you it's tuned out. With the ECB having punted on their opportunity to address tapering, bond markets are at a bit of a loss when it comes to motivation. Normally, if a central bank was expected to say something …read more

Mortgage Rates Unchanged at 2-Week Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates held steady today, continuing a much-needed break from the move higher that dominated the first 2 weeks of October. While we’ve only seen modest improvements (or in today’s case, a mere absence of deterioration), it’s been enough to get the average lender back below last week’s best levels. 3.625% remains the most prevalently-quoted convention 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios, though there are a few lenders at 3.5%. In terms of underlying market movement, the past 2 days have been much calmer than they might have been. Expectations for volatility centered on …read more

Housing and Economy Probably Heading Downhill – Freddie Mac

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Deja vu all over again? Freddie Mac says economic growth is recovering from a weak first half of the year, the labor market is holding steady and Fed watchers are concluding that a rate hike will come in December; worldwide economic growth is weak and appears likely to get worse. The company’s economists add, ” We’ve been here before … last year.” The economy continues to sputter along and the housing market continues to be a bright spot although with “less room to run than in the prior few years.” Refinance-spurred mortgage activity is starting to …read more

Starter Home Drought Leaves First Time Buyers Thirsty

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Housing industry players have decried the absence of first-time homebuyers and the negative impact they have had on the housing recovery. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research team, in the most recent edition of Housing Insights , says that this absence, which has long been a result of lack of demand due to financial constraints, is now shifting to a supply issue. As the labor market has improved and wages to recover and even though tight credit may still be an obstacle recent attention has shifted to the lack of available starter homes as an impediment …read more

Fannie to Address Reps/Warrants; Ginnie and Streamline Refis; Credit Union Attorney Fees

Posted To: Pipeline Press

As thousands of folks prepare to head to Boston for the MBA’s conference, they may be asking, “What’s in my wallet?” Maybe a little less. The average cost of an out-of-network ATM fee in the U.S. is $4.57, making this the tenth consecutive year of increases. (The surcharge from the ATMs themselves accounts for $2.90 of that total, while the charge from the customer’s own bank for using an out-of-network ATM accounts for $1.67.) Heck, it’s more expensive than a no-cost home loan! Before going on, I wanted to clear up some name confusion. Yesterday I …read more

MBS RECAP: ECB Takes a Pass. Bonds Do Nothing

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was pretty anticlimactic . Most of my analysis is already available in the Day Ahead . If you're not the link-clicking type, it basically says that the ECB seems set to announce “something” in December. Perhaps that “something” will be its intention to taper asset purchases or perhaps it will officially extend them. Either way, Draghi did a very good job today of admitting to the fact that tapering was being discussed while still disavowing that it had been discussed! How did he do that?! With committees! Much like there are various types of members …read more

Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly 2 Weeks

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates were lower again today, after the European Central Bank (ECB) avoided sending any scary signals about tapering its asset purchases. Much like the Fed conducted quantitative easing (QE) in the US by buying US-based bonds, the ECB has been buying various European bonds under its own easing program. In both cases, the effects helped bring down rates around the world. There has been some speculation that Europe is getting close to their own version of the Fed’s 2013 “taper tantrum” (which refers to the quick move higher in rates in response to the …read more

More Refis and They’re Taking Longer to Close -EllieMae

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Refinancing continued to hold its ground during September, rising from 43 percent of all loan originations in August to 45 percent. Ellie Mae’s Origination Insight Report for the month noted that the refinancing share rose one or two points for all loan types and made up 56 percent of conventional originations. The share of total originations for each loan type held steady for the month with conventional loans having a 68 percent share, FHA getting 20 percent and VA loans 9 percent. The average time to close all loans increased to 48 days in September, up …read more

Sales Surge Thanks to First-Time Buyers at 4-Year High

Posted To: MND NewsWire

There is a lot of upbeat news in the September existing home sales report released by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) on Thursday. Sales rebounded sharply and the improvement was seen in all four regions . More good news, NAR attributed part of that to increased participation from first-time homebuyers, a group that has worried the housing industry by its relative absence. Total existing home sales during the month, including single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops, rose 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million. First-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of …read more