Housing Market Index Drops to 2nd Highest Level of 2016

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Housing Market Index (HMI), a measure of home builder confidence in the new home market, gave back a bit of its September surge this month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo index dropped 3 points from September to 63, exactly the consensus prediction of analysts surveyed by Econoday. The HMI had gained an unexpected 6 points in September, rising to 65 after orbiting in a narrow range of 58 to 61 for 10 months. The September index tied with October 2015 for the highest index value since the housing bubble in the mid-2000s. …read more

Freddie/Fannie news; Jumbo News; Approaching Webinars, Conferences, and Classes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Stephen Covey said, “The key is not to prioritize what’s on your schedule, but to schedule your priorities.” Catchy. Speaking of schedules, my cat Myrtle saved me an internet search by telling me that Daylight Savings Time doesn’t end this year until November 6. (We change the clocks again in early March, so we have four months of it.) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have proposed sharing more risk with insurance companies , prompting concerns from bond investors and industry groups . “People have memories of the crisis, when state regulators shut down monolines,” said Chris …read more

MBS Day Ahead: Longer-Term Rates Operating on Different Set of Fears

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As we approach Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and press conference, we are seeing a clearer display of underlying market motivations . These motivations can be best understood if we consider bond markets on a a spectrum of longer-term and shorter-term debt. Things like 10yr Treasuries and Fannie 3.0 MBS represent the sweet spot of “long-term.” Rates that range from “overnight” to 2yr Treasuries represent the sweet spot of “short-term.” When Fed rate hike expectations are driving the entire bond market, long-term and short-term debt would be moving in relative proportion. When long and short-term …read more

MBS RECAP: Positive, But Noncommittal Bounce to Begin Week

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It could be a volatile week for bond markets, and that volatility could kick the ongoing negative trend into higher gear. It would have taken quite a big bounce back toward lower rates if we wanted some peace of mind about the aforementioned risk. While today did indeed offer a bounce back from Friday's weakness, it wasn't big enough to achieve “peace of mind” status. It continues to be the case that US trading levels are noticeably paying attention to European trading. While German Bunds typically serve as the focal point for overseas bond market influence, …read more

Rates Stay Near Highs Despite Market Improvement

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates remained near 4-month highs today, despite moderate improvement in underlying bond markets. The problem for most lenders was the timing of Friday’s market movements. Bond yields spiked sharply on Friday afternoon–too late for most lenders to adjust rate sheets. Any lenders who did not ‘reprice’ on Friday were left to account for the market weakness today. As such, most lenders are right in line with their highest rate offerings in more than 4 months. In the bigger picture , rate markets are anxious. While it’s a welcome development to see rates heading in …read more

How Decreasing Migration Affects The Mortgage Market

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Americans are staying put, both in their homes and in their jobs. The two appear to be related but which is the driving force? In a recent Urban Institute blog researcher Bhargavi Ganesh points to the decreasing incidence of state-to-state migration, a trend that started in 1990 . Her cites research from Raven Molloy of the Federal Reserve that shows interstate movers dropped from nearly 3 percent of the population in the 1980s to less than 1.5 percent in the five years that ended in 2015. This has happened “despite technological advances, increased immigration, and higher …read more

Lender Disaster Updates; Big Bank 3rd Quarter Mortgage Results – Industry’s Barometer?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

If you are a residential lender and volume in the 3rd quarter was up about 10% over the 2nd quarter, you’re right in line. Industry sources, including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the MBA, are forecasting that industry volumes will be up roughly 8% Q/Q…and we’re seeing that with Wells, Chase, and Bank of America – more below on big bank home loan metrics. As Madonna sang, “Some boys try and some boys lie but I don’t let them play. Only boys who save their pennies make my rainy day.” Most of us save their money …read more

MBS Week Ahead: Approaching Major Inflection Point Ahead of ECB Meeting

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The European Central Bank (ECB) has been one of the driving forces behind ultra-low rates around the world for several years, thanks to an aggressive and expanding bond buying program. There was a time when the Fed's easing efforts could also be classified as aggressive and expanding. Incidentally the analogous time frames resulted in all-time lows for global rates in both cases. The Fed began to shift from “aggressive and expanding” to “still aggressive, but possibly no longer expanding ” in 2013. The result was the Taper Tantrum and a concomitant move quickly higher in rate. …read more

MBS RECAP: Widespread Negative Reprices as Bonds Sell Off Late

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Ahhh, the good old mystery move! There are so many potential contributors to this afternoon's sharp sell-off in bonds that it scarcely makes sense to discuss their individual merit. But let's go back to the beginning, for those of you that would like a recap of the entire day in addition to the interesting 3 hours at the end. The day began with bonds under pressure , but not in any weaker territory than they'd already seen on Wednesday. The culprits were overnight data in China and ongoing bond market weakness in Europe, or so the …read more

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back to 4-Month Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates remained under pressure today, moving right back to the highest levels in more than 4 months after only one day of recovery. This might not have been readily apparent on most of the day’s rate quotes because things didn’t deteriorate meaningfully until late in the afternoon. In fact, for several lenders, it was too late in the day to issue a reprice (i.e. a new rate sheet on any given day, typically prompted by big moves in bond markets). When that happens, those lenders simply adjust for the market movement on Monday morning. …read more